Pre-Autumn Oxford, and this week a new grad student moved in next door. So this post gets nerdy on the nexus of responsible business and responsive government in African societies.
The topic is big, but if this blog's themes were translated into a research agenda, what might be some principal questions?
I try below to list 10 hypothetical thesis research topics. They are not the 10 biggest questions around 'Africa Rising' generally. Partly this reflects an implicit call on what issues relate to a public role for the private sector, and which are firmly matters for government only: this blog is not about public policy in general. Many of the issues affecting Africa's trajectory are global ones even if they have important localised impacts, from climate change to negotiations on trade barriers.
Instead the list is an exercise in indulgence were I to be one of these new post-grads choosing a topic.
You will notice that some of them are essentially diagnostic: where are we now? There's a reason for that. Working on medium- and longer-term upside scenarios for Africa's unlocked potential -- generally or by sector -- is very interesting work. There is quite a bit of it, and every few months more glossy reports. Yet the trick to such projections is basing them in accurate stock of where things are now. The paucity or unreliability of data make this no easy task -- as Morten Jerven has continued to show.I try below to list 10 hypothetical thesis research topics. They are not the 10 biggest questions around 'Africa Rising' generally. Partly this reflects an implicit call on what issues relate to a public role for the private sector, and which are firmly matters for government only: this blog is not about public policy in general. Many of the issues affecting Africa's trajectory are global ones even if they have important localised impacts, from climate change to negotiations on trade barriers.
Instead the list is an exercise in indulgence were I to be one of these new post-grads choosing a topic.
Taking stock, deciding baselines, and building scenarios requires, of course, asking the right questions. So does the task of imagining the 'upside' -- what does it comprise, what does it mean to conceptualise steady growth that is inclusive and sustainable?
Well, here are 10 topics. They are not necessarily in order of priority. They are framed brief and broad as research questions, albeit ones with a degree of abstraction (macro-level) and with a heavy policy rather than academic or conceptual dimension.
1. 'Inclusive growth': What is in fact happening to income inequality in the region's major economies -- is there any role for business on this issue in fast-changing markets, or is its social responsibility only to grow? More generally, how can tax system design in African conditions best balance private sector incentives with public goods imperatives, and how do we institutionalise appropriate public-private dialogue on tax issues?
2. 'Africapitalism': Is there any evidence of an emerging identifiable 'African' model of private enterprise with smoother edges in terms of sustainability and social + environmental impact, a model consistent with prevailing political ideas of the developmental state ... or is 'Africapitalism' just a neat phrase with no real content, in economies whose structural patterns are well entrenched?
3. 'Business and development': Policymakers valorise small and medium enterprises, but what do we really know about their impact on job-creation and poverty-reduction in Africa? Assuming we know this, what can realistically be done about financing, regulatory and other obstacles to local business creation and continuation on the continent -- how can donors, lenders and big business help?
4. 'Business for development': Related to 3, in what ways can systematically engaging bigger business in the sustainable development and inclusive growth agenda help, including by linking informal or smaller-scale actors into bigger value-chains? Why is this proving so hard? Where has rhetoric on private sector engagement yielded significant results capable of sustaining replicable models?
5. 'Innovation: nothing new?': Mobiles (and related platforms) have had a significant impact in Africa, including in ways that address or leapfrog altogether some stubborn development bottlenecks. This continues to spurn a lot of hype about Africa's 'digital lions' and the transformative potential of the internet in African economies. Yet what evidence is there about links between private consumption or public investment in / of ICTs and significant change in core areas of the economy such as agriculture? How might the internet/digital/knowledge economy prove truly transformative? Or is the current donor buzzing around innovation and ICT only going to prove a distraction from education and skills issues and from addressing some basic infrastructural, policy and regulatory barriers to growth in traditional sectors?
6. 'New investors': What evidence is there that Chinese and other investors have an inferior social or environmental footprint in Africa relative to other (Western) firms? On the basis of this, what scope still exists to shape 'new' investors' approaches in ways that promote ideals around sustainability, good governance and human rights?
7. 'Future-proofing cities': In what ways are business and governments (including sub-national governments) working together to address service-provision and other shared issues in Africa's more significant fast-growing urban areas? What can be done to scale-up some of these initiatives, and how do they relate to broader national and donor development strategies, including in terms of being coherent with rural development issues?
8. 'Public-private partnerships': What pro-development role do PPPs really have to play, what is their record of success, why is there reluctance on either side, what could be done to ensure they meet the potential often attributed to them? In particular, recent high-level summits have called for innovative public-private financing mechanisms to 'share risks while maximising financial returns alongside development impact' (a tall order ...): what models work / might work, what can be done to ensure they're taken up especially for public infrastructure funding?
9. 'Farming fundamentals': Perhaps I am biased, but it seems to me the focus on Africa's urban consumer classes, youth demographic, urban labour surplus, manufacturing potential (etc) is still wide of the main mark. That mark is agriculture, and related value-adding services and industries. What does the last decade really tell us about the scope for private investment in these (very diverse) sectors to have significant developmental impact, in particular through bringing in smallholders?
10. 'Fragility and prosperity': in what specific ways does donor and government policy towards private sector development or engagement require adaptation for countries and areas affected by fragility, conflict and violence? How do we attract reputable firms to risky places? Does major investment necessarily increase human security in fragile regions, where might it have had the opposite effect?
There are any number of other questions and re-framing of the listed ones. There it is. The potential and problems relating to Africa's women and girls mean that the listed things could benefit from a gender dimension.
Responsible policymakers and investors would be asking essentially the same questions about the nature of the continent's growth path: one question underlying all those on the list is how to foster responsibility and attention to longer-term horizons within government and business. That challenge is hardly unique to Africa.
Jo
1. 'Inclusive growth': What is in fact happening to income inequality in the region's major economies -- is there any role for business on this issue in fast-changing markets, or is its social responsibility only to grow? More generally, how can tax system design in African conditions best balance private sector incentives with public goods imperatives, and how do we institutionalise appropriate public-private dialogue on tax issues?
2. 'Africapitalism': Is there any evidence of an emerging identifiable 'African' model of private enterprise with smoother edges in terms of sustainability and social + environmental impact, a model consistent with prevailing political ideas of the developmental state ... or is 'Africapitalism' just a neat phrase with no real content, in economies whose structural patterns are well entrenched?
3. 'Business and development': Policymakers valorise small and medium enterprises, but what do we really know about their impact on job-creation and poverty-reduction in Africa? Assuming we know this, what can realistically be done about financing, regulatory and other obstacles to local business creation and continuation on the continent -- how can donors, lenders and big business help?
4. 'Business for development': Related to 3, in what ways can systematically engaging bigger business in the sustainable development and inclusive growth agenda help, including by linking informal or smaller-scale actors into bigger value-chains? Why is this proving so hard? Where has rhetoric on private sector engagement yielded significant results capable of sustaining replicable models?
5. 'Innovation: nothing new?': Mobiles (and related platforms) have had a significant impact in Africa, including in ways that address or leapfrog altogether some stubborn development bottlenecks. This continues to spurn a lot of hype about Africa's 'digital lions' and the transformative potential of the internet in African economies. Yet what evidence is there about links between private consumption or public investment in / of ICTs and significant change in core areas of the economy such as agriculture? How might the internet/digital/knowledge economy prove truly transformative? Or is the current donor buzzing around innovation and ICT only going to prove a distraction from education and skills issues and from addressing some basic infrastructural, policy and regulatory barriers to growth in traditional sectors?
6. 'New investors': What evidence is there that Chinese and other investors have an inferior social or environmental footprint in Africa relative to other (Western) firms? On the basis of this, what scope still exists to shape 'new' investors' approaches in ways that promote ideals around sustainability, good governance and human rights?
7. 'Future-proofing cities': In what ways are business and governments (including sub-national governments) working together to address service-provision and other shared issues in Africa's more significant fast-growing urban areas? What can be done to scale-up some of these initiatives, and how do they relate to broader national and donor development strategies, including in terms of being coherent with rural development issues?
8. 'Public-private partnerships': What pro-development role do PPPs really have to play, what is their record of success, why is there reluctance on either side, what could be done to ensure they meet the potential often attributed to them? In particular, recent high-level summits have called for innovative public-private financing mechanisms to 'share risks while maximising financial returns alongside development impact' (a tall order ...): what models work / might work, what can be done to ensure they're taken up especially for public infrastructure funding?
9. 'Farming fundamentals': Perhaps I am biased, but it seems to me the focus on Africa's urban consumer classes, youth demographic, urban labour surplus, manufacturing potential (etc) is still wide of the main mark. That mark is agriculture, and related value-adding services and industries. What does the last decade really tell us about the scope for private investment in these (very diverse) sectors to have significant developmental impact, in particular through bringing in smallholders?
10. 'Fragility and prosperity': in what specific ways does donor and government policy towards private sector development or engagement require adaptation for countries and areas affected by fragility, conflict and violence? How do we attract reputable firms to risky places? Does major investment necessarily increase human security in fragile regions, where might it have had the opposite effect?
There are any number of other questions and re-framing of the listed ones. There it is. The potential and problems relating to Africa's women and girls mean that the listed things could benefit from a gender dimension.
Responsible policymakers and investors would be asking essentially the same questions about the nature of the continent's growth path: one question underlying all those on the list is how to foster responsibility and attention to longer-term horizons within government and business. That challenge is hardly unique to Africa.
Jo
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